By TD International Project Manager Jason Potell

Faulty assumptions about recent events in Egypt lead to a misunderstanding of their causes and of America’s capacity to respond to them.

Two recent events have propelled Egypt back onto the front pages worldwide. First, apparently politically orchestrated violence at a football match in Port Said has prompted further violent demonstrations against the regime. Secondly, the Egyptian government has launched a crackdown on non-profit groups and their workers – including 19 American citizens – claiming that foreigners are funding pro-democracy groups and anti-government protests.

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By TD International Partner Fred Enochs

The sudden successful surge by the rebels in Libya has buoyed the confidence around the world that a quick end to the Qaddafi regime is near and that stability within the nation will soon return. No one seems happier at the moment than Western oil companies looking to return to Libya and resume pre-conflict operations.

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PennEnergy.com was able to get some insight from former CIA officer Fred Enochs, now a partner in Washington, DC-based TD International, a strategic advisory firm. Working in Houston, Enochs specializes in domestic and international energy, finance and commodity trading with a focus on government policy issues and project due diligence.

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By TD International Partner Fred Enochs

To stay afloat, offshore producers are now venturing into murky waters.

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By TD International Partner Fred Enochs

In today’s international-risk environment, it is often aboveground risk that causes energy deals to turn upside down. Here’s how to get, and use, better information.

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By TD International Managing Partner William A. Green

The world watches as nations with major roles in the worldwide oil industry enact regime changes.
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Copyright 2010 The Wall Street Journal

Halliburton Co. said Tuesday it settled bribery charges with the Nigerian government and agreed to pay a $32.5 million fine, contradicting reports from last week quoting government officials saying the company would pay $250 million.

A company spokeswoman said she had no comment beyond the announcement, and Corruption Currents could not reach the Nigerian Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, which negotiated the settlement.

However, one possible explanation came from Fred Enochs, a partner at Washington, D.C.-based consultancy TD International...

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Copyright 2010 Houston Chronicle

In Africa's oil-and-gas-rich Niger Delta region, rebel groups have kidnapped workers and killed security forces as part of a resumption of conflicts that had been in a lull for many months.

Earlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice announced more than $236 million in fines and settlement payments from energy companies related to allegations of overseas bribes.

Those risks can be managed, says Fred Enochs, head of the Houston office of strategic advisory firm TD International, but it takes planning. Enochs, a former CIA manager who supported projects in more than 70 countries, spoke with the Chronicle's Tom Fowler about these issues and about hearings set to begin today in the Senate Judiciary Committee on possible changes to FCPA enforcement. Edited excerpts:

Q: Why are we seeing more Nigerian violence in the past month?
A: It's a lot of different moving parts involved. You have the elections coming in 2011 and some infighting between the parties that that creates. You did have an amnesty in place for some time, but then the government started to crack down on (the MEND rebel group). So the backlash is they attack oil and gas infrastructure. There were also some mispayments to the groups under the amnesty program. So it's not just the press paying attention to it, but really there has been more activity.

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The temporary removal of the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) containment cap – and the subsequent increased flow of oil into the Gulf – was a minor setback for BP; now, new speculation adds another dimension to the company’s list of problems.

Analysis of BP’s failed attempts to stem the flow of oil into the gulf reveals that the well casing below the sea floor is likely breached and leaking oil into the surrounding rock formations. During BP’s top kill effort, the kill mud being pumped into the kill lines on the blow-out-preventer (BOP) was escaping – likely through a potential breach down in the well. Hydrocarbons leaking out of the well casing will eventually erode the seabed upon which the 450-ton BOP sits. If these leaks undermine the seabed structure, the BOP could topple over and leave the well bore completely unobstructed. This could eventually lead to an unimpeded bleed out of the reservoir until the relief wells are successfully drilled; a catastrophic worst-case scenario:

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Speech to US-Russia Business Council Legal Conference
Managing Commercial, Technical & Execution Risk

Good morning, everyone. My name is Chris Crowl, and I’m the director of operations at TD International. We’re a strategic consulting and commercial intelligence firm headquartered in Washington, DC, where I’m based, and we have an office here in Houston. My partner, Fred Enochs, who heads that office is also here today. Fred’s six-foot-five, so you won’t have any trouble picking him out of the crowd later if you want to chat. We’re both grateful to Ed Verona and the Council for giving us the opportunity to be with you today.

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We are in the twilight of the Castro years. Just as the Cuban revolution unwinds and everyone, especially Cubans, agrees that the revolution has done nothing except impoverish a once-productive society, now another country has decided to follow its example: Venezuela.

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Throughout Argentina’s history, Argentines have held to the notion that “God is an Argentine.” Argentine governments have always been able to ride out crises, frequently based not on their policies but on good fortune. How else can one explain a country that has tremendous natural resources and human capital, yet defaulted twice on its debt in the late 19th century, and then by the early 20th century was the seventh richest economy on earth? "As rich as an Argentine" was the popular notion, especially among non-Argentines.

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Since the first days of the Obama Administration, American officials publicly and privately have coalesced around the position that efforts to isolate Cuba have not worked and the economic embargo has not served US strategic interests. Far from pressuring the Cuban leadership to modify its positions, the policy has hurt the Cuban people and has provided the leadership with a scapegoat. Moreover, the embargo has allowed ordinary Cubans to blame U.S. policy for the failure of Fidel Castro’s internal policies.

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The 2010 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia from February 12-28, 2010. SecurAssist is proud to present this guide on the security and transportation challenges that the Games will present to visitors.

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Individuals planning to travel to Germany in the near future should be aware of the increasing likelihood of Islamist terrorist activity in that country. According to German intelligence services, the number of threats against targets in Germany has increased dramatically in recent months, and the US Department of State has issued a Travel Alert for the entire Federal Republic that remains in effect until February 2010.

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My name is Chris Crowl, and I’m the Director of Operations at TD International. TDI is new to the Business Council, though we’ve been engaged providing strategic consulting for US companies active in Russia and other challenging environments since the mid-1990s. My particular area of focus is conducting pre-transaction due diligence and corporate fraud investigations in Russia and in building and supporting FCPA compliance programs for US companies.

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As the global financial industry staggers, unemployment increases, currencies fall and wealth disappears, travelers around the world may increasingly find themselves confronted with a novel type of security phenomenon in 2009: economic unrest.

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Israel’s aerial bombing campaign in Gaza against the Islamist movement Hamas entered its third day Monday, with signs that the conflict could intensify in the coming days. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak declared that Israel is in an “all-out war” with Hamas and its proxies, and Israeli jets have targeted government ministry buildings, a Hamas-affiliated university and a pro-Hamas television station in their recent sorties. Israel has already destroyed dozens of Hamas paramilitary facilities, smuggling tunnels and underground rocket-launching sites.

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The negotiations between the so-called ‘Iran Six’ – the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – and Iran regarding the latter’s nuclear enrichment activities have been stagnant since July. While events like the Russia-Georgia conflict and the global financial crisis have momentarily pushed Iran off of the front pages, the situation is no less serious than it was during the summer.

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Clashes between protestors and police in Greece entered their fourth day on Tuesday, with disturbances reaching the Greek Parliament building in Athens. The clashes are in response to the shooting of a teenager by police in Athens on Saturday evening, but also have roots in general public discontent with political and economic conditions in the country. The rioting is the worst that Greece has seen in decades; more than 40 people have been injured and dozens of properties have been destroyed in larger cities like Athens and Thessaloniki.

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